Market Comments Moving to Twitter
The Model: Yes, it’s still very Green. Bill and I have decided to keep our website where it is, but shift our weekly comments to Twitter. You can always check the Model’s “Status Page” on our homepage, or with the following link: Status of the KP Trend Model Bill and I are moving the commentary to Twitter (everyone is still calling it Twitter, not “X”) and all of our graphics will follow. You can check out some of my comments under the Twitter link @kellerpartners, and we expect to forward an address for Bill in a few...
Read MoreGrinding Higher
Position of the Model. The KP Trend Model remains Green. From the Trading Room. Noteworthy this week are the two KP primary oscillator studies. Both the Short-Term Internal Oscillator and Tactical Exposure Oscillator have completed meaningful pullbacks from significant overextensions into overbought zones and are once again advancing higher from their respective neutral zones, with room ahead. Upside price momentum remains intact, led predominantly by the small number of large-cap technology issues, supporting new all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices again this...
Read MorePositive Trend Remains Intact
The Model. The KP Trend Model remains Green — full policy commitment to US equities. From the Trading Room. While there is always lots to worry about in the real world, the technical trend condition as we measure it remains solidly bullish. Our approach is designed to follow the trend, not anticipate it, so it will always be late, by design. We do use some other widows to observe the action, such as this technical review of the Magnificent Seven which we update periodically on Twitter. While we believe that the huge over-concentration in these issues will end very badly, this...
Read MoreDrifting
The Model: The Trend Model is solidly Green, full exposure to US equities. From the Trading Room: Positive Price Momentum continues to drive most market indices higher. The KP Long-Term Model component, based solely on price, is positive and rising. Other KP studies are compiled from non-price ‘internal data’, generated from daily trading activity. These technical oscillator studies are designed to gauge the intensity\resolve in the trading activity. The analytic tools are subtly displaying investor sentiment, in essence a look behind the trading decisions that day. Lately,...
Read MoreCoasting Higher
The Model for US equities remains fully Green. From the Trading Room. After 25+ years of working with market trend models, we often return to the simple truth that “less is more.” With just a handful of market data series as inputs, the KP Trend Model generates about six signals every year. These invite us to modify our market exposure, and, frankly, about two of the six signals are usually not very helpful. However, over time, the other four signals have been very powerful: they have shown themselves capable of turning a noisy, scary, index fund investment into...
Read MoreDurability of Momentum
The Model: The KP Trend Model is solidly Green, maximum exposure to US equities. From the Trading Room: In last week’s missive, Werner commented on the spikes in the Red Model line, highlighting these events on the chart of the KP-1 Intermediate-Term Model. There are two other “lines” shown in this study, the blue Zero Trigger line and Grey Model Line EMA. The grey line is an exponential smoothing of the Red Model Line that plays an important role when traveling below the blue line. The Grey EMA line moved above the blue line last December and is seen rising, pulling...
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