Market Comments Moving to Twitter
The Model: Yes, it’s still very Green. Bill and I have decided to keep our website where it is, but shift our weekly comments to Twitter. You can always check the Model’s “Status Page” on our homepage, or with the following link: Status of the KP Trend Model Bill and I are moving the commentary to Twitter (everyone is still calling it Twitter, not “X”) and all of our graphics will follow. You can check out some of my comments under the Twitter link @kellerpartners, and we expect to forward an address for Bill in a few...
Read MorePositive Trend Remains Intact
The Model. The KP Trend Model remains Green — full policy commitment to US equities. From the Trading Room. While there is always lots to worry about in the real world, the technical trend condition as we measure it remains solidly bullish. Our approach is designed to follow the trend, not anticipate it, so it will always be late, by design. We do use some other widows to observe the action, such as this technical review of the Magnificent Seven which we update periodically on Twitter. While we believe that the huge over-concentration in these issues will end very badly, this...
Read MoreCoasting Higher
The Model for US equities remains fully Green. From the Trading Room. After 25+ years of working with market trend models, we often return to the simple truth that “less is more.” With just a handful of market data series as inputs, the KP Trend Model generates about six signals every year. These invite us to modify our market exposure, and, frankly, about two of the six signals are usually not very helpful. However, over time, the other four signals have been very powerful: they have shown themselves capable of turning a noisy, scary, index fund investment into...
Read MoreLooking Around the Corner
The Model. Fueled by this year’s tech rally, our Trend Model remains positive. Full exposure to US equities. When we implement the exposure recommendations of the KP Trend Model over several years, we are likely to experience risk-adjusted investment returns significantly higher than those achieved by passive investors. While our annualized investment returns are likely improve modestly, there will invariably be a huge reduction in portfolio volatility and drawdown. This will especially be true with popular index ETFs such as SPY, QQQ, or IWM. The current position of the...
Read MoreA Solid Model
The Model. The KP Trend Model is Green. Full policy exposure to US equities. From the Trading Room. It has been just one week since our trend model returned to Green on Friday, April 26 after a very brief six trading days in Yellow status. As we’ve said many times, the Model doesn’t read newspapers and thus doesn’t “know” anything. As tempting as it might be, we can’t read any special meaning into these short-term reversals — they simply reflect the underlying mathematics which process a mountain of daily market data. Given the inherent tendency of financial...
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