Time for Active Management
We find ourselves at the logical end of the passive investment management era. Still, despite the painful portfolio losses we saw just this April 2025 or in 2022, buy and hold portfolio management continues to be the dominant choice of investors, their advisers, financial academics, and the Wall Street giants. The paradigm has been hard-wired into the system. After all, it has worked for forty-five years.
Revisiting Marty Zweig
Dr. Martin Zweig was memorable in many ways — for those of us who believe that technical approaches are critical tools, he was the hero who actually mastered trading markets and stocks for profit.
The turbulence we experienced in April 2025, was a perfect time to revisit a key Marty Zweig concept: his Breadth Thrust . . . .
On May 15, the KP Trend Model returned to a Green status after a brief visit to Yellow and even a few days in Red during the chaotic days at the beginning of April.
Accordingly, our recom-mended US equity allocation is once again fully invested, which we implement as 95% large cap equties and roughly 5% cash.
The Green condition has dominated the US market environment of the past quarter century and is characterized by high returns and low volatility . . .
Analyzing Market Trends
Market trends, not investment selections, dominate the performance of invest-ment portfolios.
Forecasting these trends is a challenging undertaking, but even a partially successful approach to managing market risk will significantly reduce volatility and portfolio drawdown . . .